一季度新增裝機占比超九成，新能源消納問題或凸顯

2024-04-25 09:45

新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的發(fa)電(dian)(dian)生力(li)軍(jun)角色日(ri)益重要。今年一(yi)季(ji)度，非(fei)化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)新增(zeng)裝機占總新增(zeng)裝機比重達九成，全口徑非(fei)化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)長13.8%，占總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量比重為35.0%，同(tong)比提高1.4個百分點(dian)。4月(yue)24日(ri)，貝殼財經記(ji)者自中(zhong)國電(dian)(dian)力(li)企(qi)業(ye)聯合會(hui)（“中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)聯”）獲悉了(le)上述數據。

中(zhong)電(dian)聯(lian)數據(ju)顯(xian)示(shi)，一季度(du)，全(quan)國(guo)新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量6943萬千(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)比多投產1342萬千(qian)瓦(wa)；其中(zhong)新增(zeng)(zeng)非化石能源發(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量6376萬千(qian)瓦(wa)，占新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)總容(rong)量的(de)比重為91.8%。

截至3月(yue)底(di)，全(quan)國全(quan)口(kou)徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)29.9億(yi)千(qian)瓦，其(qi)中非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)16.4億(yi)千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長24.8%，占(zhan)總(zong)(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為54.8%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期提高(gao)4.5個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)底(di)提高(gao)0.9個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。全(quan)國并(bing)網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)合(he)計裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模在3月(yue)底(di)達(da)到11.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長39.3%，占(zhan)總(zong)(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為37.3%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期提高(gao)6.6個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)底(di)提高(gao)1.3個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)14.0億(yi)千(qian)瓦，其(qi)中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)11.7億(yi)千(qian)瓦，占(zhan)總(zong)(zong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重為39.0%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)降低4.2個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力裝機延續(xu)綠色低碳發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展趨勢的同(tong)(tong)(tong)時，非化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)亦(yi)實(shi)現快速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。一季度全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)規模以(yi)上工業發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.24萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.7%。其中，規模以(yi)上電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.6%、2.2%和0.6%。全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑(jing)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)13.8%，占(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重為35.0%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)提高1.4個百分(fen)(fen)點；全(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑(jing)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加991億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，占(zhan)一季度全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)的47.6%。

中電(dian)聯預計(ji)(ji)，并網風電(dian)和太(tai)陽能(neng)發電(dian)合計(ji)(ji)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)預計(ji)(ji)將在(zai)今年(nian)二季度(du)至三季度(du)首(shou)次(ci)超過煤電(dian)裝(zhuang)機，2024年(nian)底(di)達到13億千瓦左(zuo)右，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機比重上(shang)升至40%左(zuo)右，部分地區新能(neng)源消納壓(ya)力凸顯、利用率將下降。

此前(qian)全(quan)國新能(neng)源消納(na)(na)監測預警中心發(fa)布的2024年2月(yue)全(quan)國新能(neng)源并(bing)網消納(na)(na)情況顯示(shi)，2月(yue)份(fen)全(quan)國光(guang)(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)利(li)用(yong)率(lv)為(wei)93.4%，環比下降4.7%。這(zhe)是2021年初次統計發(fa)布全(quan)國新能(neng)源并(bing)網消納(na)(na)情況至今，光(guang)(guang)伏利(li)用(yong)率(lv)首(shou)次跌破95%。

解決(jue)新(xin)能源消(xiao)納難題的(de)壓(ya)力日(ri)益緊(jin)迫。政策層(ceng)面(mian)，國家(jia)發(fa)(fa)展改革委和(he)國家(jia)能源局今年3月發(fa)(fa)布了《關于新(xin)形勢下(xia)配電(dian)網高質(zhi)量發(fa)(fa)展的(de)指導(dao)意(yi)見》，旨在(zai)解決(jue)新(xin)能源消(xiao)納問題，提升電(dian)網承載能力。

《意見》顯示，我國分布式新能源發展較快，部分地區承載力接近極限，存在配電網電壓越限、電網調峰困難的情況。為滿足大規模分布式新能源接網需求，《意見》提出有針對性加強配電網建設，評估配電網承載能力，引導分布式新能源科學布局、有序開發、就近接入、就地消納。（新京報貝殼財經）