新能(neng)源(yuan)車(che)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)按照充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)方式(shi)可以分(fen)為直(zhi)流(liu)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)和(he)交流(liu)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)。其中，直(zhi)流(liu)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)速度比較快， 俗稱的(de)“快充(chong)(chong)”。一般(ban)是安裝(zhuang)在城市公共區域，高速路(lu)，公路(lu)旁的(de)公共充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)，這種充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)通常(chang)固(gu)定安裝(zhuang)在電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)外， 和(he)交流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網連接，自帶(dai) AC/DC 充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模塊將交流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)轉化為直(zhi)流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)給車(che)載(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池供電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

近年(nian)來全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)公(gong)共(gong)快充(chong)(chong)樁保持較(jiao)高增(zeng)(zeng)速，中(zhong)(zhong)國公(gong)共(gong)快充(chong)(chong)樁占(zhan)比(bi)提升。根(gen)據(ju)(ju) IEA 數(shu)據(ju)(ju)，2021 年(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu) 公(gong)共(gong)快充(chong)(chong)樁約(yue)569千臺(tai)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長 47.41%，其中(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)國的占(zhan)比(bi)為 82.60%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi) 2020年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加 2.5pct；2021 年(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)公(gong)共(gong)慢(man)充(chong)(chong)樁約(yue) 1208 千臺(tai)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加 32.9%，其中(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)國的占(zhan)比(bi)為 56.04%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi) 2020 年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加 1.3pct。

新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車(che)高增長，需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)推動充電樁建設。在(zai)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)快速(su)發展的過程中，充電樁行(xing)業也在(zai)快速(su)發展，隨著國家 政策+需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的催(cui)化下，車(che)樁比呈(cheng)現下降趨(qu)勢。

與此同時，數據顯(xian)示，新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)電(dian)樁功(gong)率(lv)呈現逐(zhu)年(nian)提升趨(qu)勢(shi),快充(chong)趨(qu)勢(shi)顯(xian)現。2016 年(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)電(dian)樁平均(jun) 功(gong)率(lv)為 62.9kW，而(er) 2020 年(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)充(chong)電(dian)樁平均(jun)功(gong)率(lv)為 131.9kW，我(wo)們認為目前市場上對(dui)快 速充(chong)電(dian)的需求愈發(fa)顯(xian)現，公(gong)共(gong)直(zhi)流(liu)(liu)快充(chong)樁作(zuo)為能夠解(jie)決(jue)充(chong)電(dian)焦慮的一種方式，逐(zhu)漸成為未來(lai)發(fa) 展(zhan)趨(qu)向。

800V 架構蓄勢待發，充電樁向大功率方向演進

高壓高倍率滲透率逐漸提升，800V 架構蓄勢待發。從行業發展階段來看，目前主流新能源車以 400V 架構為主，隨著新能源車不斷發展，用戶對充電性能的要求日益提升。自從 2019 年保時捷 T 發布首款 800V 高壓平臺的量產車型 Taycan 以來，國內外廠商紛紛跟進，起亞發布 800V 平臺 E-GMP；比亞迪 2021 年發布 800V 平臺 e 3.0，吉利汽車發布 SEA 浩瀚架構，800V 高壓快充成為 大勢所趨。我們認為，以 800V 架構為代表的高壓/高倍率路線有望成為未來的主流發展方向。

大功率充電樁成發展方向。參考《廣汽埃安高壓快充技術應用及展望》，2021 年電池倍率在 0.8C-1.5C 之間，額定電壓在 300V-400V 之間，而快充充電樁功率在 30-120kW 之間。而隨著電池 倍率往 3C 甚至 6C 發展，額定電壓向 800V 演進，未來快充充電樁功率也需要得到提升，大功率充 電樁成為發展方向，未來向 200kW、480kW 甚至更高功率發展。

大(da)(da)功率(lv)充(chong)(chong)電模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)+液冷(leng)是大(da)(da)勢所趨。直(zhi)流充(chong)(chong)電樁由(you)多個(ge)充(chong)(chong)電模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)組成(cheng)，以(yi) 120kW 充(chong)(chong)電樁為例(li),若(ruo)使用 15kw 充(chong)(chong)電模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai),需(xu)(xu)要(yao) 8 個(ge)并聯,但(dan)若(ruo)采用 30kW 充(chong)(chong)電模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai),只需(xu)(xu)要(yao) 4 個(ge)并聯。參考電樁網數據(ju)，2021 年中國 20kW 模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)占(zhan)據(ju)市場(chang)容量比例(li)約為 60%左右(you)，其(qi)余容量比例(li)主要(yao)由(you) 30kW 模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai)占(zhan)據(ju)，40kW 模(mo)(mo)(mo)塊(kuai) 占(zhan)據(ju)小部(bu)分。隨(sui)著近年來電動汽車電池容量的提(ti)升(sheng)及充(chong)(chong)電倍(bei)率(lv)的提(ti)升(sheng)，已經有明顯的實際市場(chang)發展 趨勢：20kW 較大(da)(da)份額市場(chang)正(zheng)在逐漸向 20kW，30kW，40kW 多元化規格發展。

大功率充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)下，液冷(leng)(leng)(leng)散(san)熱(re)(re)成為解決(jue)發熱(re)(re)的重要手段之一。相較于(yu)(yu)風冷(leng)(leng)(leng)散(san)熱(re)(re)，全隔離防(fang)護(hu)技術下 的液冷(leng)(leng)(leng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊(kuai)是通過壓縮(suo)機(ji)制冷(leng)(leng)(leng)，依(yi)靠循(xun)環液帶走熱(re)(re)量，并使用冷(leng)(leng)(leng)凝器對循(xun)環液進行(xing)降溫(wen)，具 有(you)高(gao)防(fang)護(hu)、低噪聲（風冷(leng)(leng)(leng)散(san)熱(re)(re)噪聲大于(yu)(yu)等于(yu)(yu) 60 分貝，液冷(leng)(leng)(leng)散(san)熱(re)(re)噪聲則控制在 35 分貝內）、耐(nai)熱(re)(re) 好和易維護(hu)的特點，滿(man)足快充(chong)(chong)需(xu)求下 70kW 及以(yi)上充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊(kuai)的散(san)熱(re)(re)訴求。目前，雖然液冷(leng)(leng)(leng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo) 塊(kuai)成本(ben)較高(gao)，同等功率下液冷(leng)(leng)(leng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁價格較風冷(leng)(leng)(leng)高(gao)，但后(hou)期維護(hu)和檢修次數較少，一定程度上降 低運營維護(hu)成本(ben)，未(wei)來(lai)有(you)望成為充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)模(mo)塊(kuai)的主流散(san)熱(re)(re)方(fang)式。

大功率快充發展趨勢下，光儲充或將成為落地方案之一

大功(gong)率快(kuai)充會對配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)造成負面(mian)影(ying)響(xiang)。電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車主要通過配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)接入電(dian)(dian)網(wang)，大量的電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車接 入電(dian)(dian)網(wang)，尤其是通過快(kuai)充充電(dian)(dian)/大功(gong)率快(kuai)充對配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)影(ying)響(xiang)較大。參考《電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車在上海市電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi) 統中的應用潛力(li)(li)研究(jiu)》及(ji)《規模(mo)化電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車充電(dian)(dian)負荷對配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)的影(ying)響(xiang)及(ji)優化控制研究(jiu)》等文(wen)獻， 大功(gong)率快(kuai)充有以(yi)下影(ying)響(xiang)：

1） 配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)及線路過載。配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)過載將來會成為電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)(che)規模化運行的主要(yao)限制因(yin)素(su) 之一(yi)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)(che)接(jie)入造(zao)成的負荷(he)變(bian)化可能引發(fa)分時段局部配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)過載，導致變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)內(nei)溫(wen) 度升高，從而(er)導致變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)油劣化變(bian)質(zhi)、變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)內(nei)絕(jue)緣材(cai)料加速老化，從而(er)縮短(duan)變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)的壽命。以國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網測(ce)算 27 個居民小(xiao)區與 21 座商(shang)(shang)業辦公樓案例分析(xi)為例，僅在交流慢充情(qing)況下(xia)，當 電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車(che)(che)保有量占(zhan)比達(da)到 20%時，則有 21 個小(xiao)區需(xu)要(yao)進行配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)加壓(ya)器(qi)改造(zao)，1 個居民小(xiao)區進 行 10kV 線路改造(zao)；12 個商(shang)(shang)業樓宇(yu)(yu)需(xu)要(yao)進行配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)壓(ya)器(qi)改造(zao)，5 個商(shang)(shang)業樓宇(yu)(yu)需(xu)要(yao)同時進行 10kV 線路改造(zao)。

2） 諧波污(wu)染。由(you)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機內含整流(liu)(liu)裝置，而整流(liu)(liu)裝置作為(wei)非(fei)線性負載(zai)，會對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)產(chan) 生諧波污(wu)染。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)器的使用(yong)會產(chan)生諧波電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)和(he)諧波電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓，注入到電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)中，就成為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)的一種(zhong)污(wu) 染，它(ta)會導致電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)中的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓波形畸變，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能質量下降，使電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)器設備的使用(yong)環(huan)境惡化(hua)， 危害電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)中的其它(ta)設備。大量諧波將增加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)線路電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能損耗、影響功率因素、降低繼 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保護的可靠(kao)性、干擾控制系(xi)統穩定性等。

3） 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)偏(pian)離、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)越限。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷會(hui)(hui)對(dui)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)質量造(zao)成(cheng)威脅，大規(gui)模充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷 接入不僅可能(neng)會(hui)(hui)超出配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)容量，造(zao)成(cheng)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)變壓(ya)(ya)(ya)器(qi)及線路(lu)過(guo)載，也會(hui)(hui)造(zao)成(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)偏(pian)移(yi)的現象。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)偏(pian)移(yi)（%）= （電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)測量值 - 系(xi)統(tong)標稱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)）/ 系(xi)統(tong)標稱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya) * 100%。根據國家(jia)標準 GB12325-2008《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)質量供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)偏(pian)差》規(gui)定(ding)，20kV 及以下(xia)三相(xiang)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)允許偏(pian)差的范圍是(shi) 額定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)的±7%（0.93pu 到 1.07pu 之間(jian)），大規(gui)模電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車接入/大功率充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)下(xia)，會(hui)(hui)引(yin)起 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)(ya)(ya)偏(pian)離增大，可能(neng)會(hui)(hui)超過(guo)規(gui)定(ding)值。

配(pei)網改造(zao)費用(yong)(yong)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)，難(nan)(nan)度較(jiao)大。1）超充(chong)情(qing)況(kuang)下，如(ru)果電(dian)(dian)力容(rong)(rong)量不(bu)(bu)足，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)向(xiang)當(dang)地電(dian)(dian)力部門申請 擴容(rong)(rong)，參考上(shang)海市 2016 年 10 千伏電(dian)(dian)壓(ya)等級的(de)業(ye)擴工程(cheng)定(ding)額收(shou)費標(biao)準(zhun)調(diao)整為每千伏安 1006 元， 若(ruo)處于(yu)偏遠地區(qu)，甚至(zhi)可能出現(xian)難(nan)(nan)以(yi)擴容(rong)(rong)情(qing)況(kuang)，且擴容(rong)(rong)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)多個部門批準(zhun)，改造(zao)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網難(nan)(nan)度較(jiao) 高(gao)(gao)。2）各(ge)地規定(ding)不(bu)(bu)一(yi)，在電(dian)(dian)網側，以(yi)電(dian)(dian)力報裝這一(yi)細節為例，僅「不(bu)(bu)允許(xu)使用(yong)(yong)箱變，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)建配(pei) 電(dian)(dian)房(fang)」的(de)單臺變壓(ya)器容(rong)(rong)量的(de)上(shang)限值，在不(bu)(bu)同(tong)地區(qu)就(jiu)有 630kVA、1250kVA、1600kVA 等不(bu)(bu)同(tong)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)。按照《功率(lv)(lv)因(yin)子(zi)調(diao)整電(dian)(dian)費辦法(fa)》，功率(lv)(lv)因(yin)子(zi)標(biao)準(zhun) 0.90 適(shi)用(yong)(yong)于(yu) 160kVA 以(yi)上(shang)的(de)高(gao)(gao)壓(ya)供電(dian)(dian)用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)，則 在 630kVA 時僅能配(pei)置 1 臺 480kw 充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁或多臺其他功率(lv)(lv)較(jiao)低充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁。

研(yan)究(jiu)認(ren)為大功(gong)率(lv)快(kuai)充(chong)會對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)造成較大的影響，公共場所(suo)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)難(nan)以(yi)滿足大功(gong)率(lv)快(kuai)充(chong)需求，因此企業自建大功(gong)率(lv)超充(chong)站(zhan)，采用光儲充(chong)方式或將成為化(hua)解大功(gong)率(lv)快(kuai)充(chong)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)沖擊(ji)的途徑(jing)之一；同(tong)時通(tong)過(guo)軟件控制等方式，也可以(yi)將充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁內(nei)的功(gong)率(lv)進行(xing)調配，轉移(yi)到需要滿功(gong)率(lv)充(chong) 電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的車上（不是所(suo)有(you)車都需要滿功(gong)率(lv)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)）。

總之，在新能源(yuan)汽(qi)車滲透(tou)率(lv)逐(zhu)年(nian)上升的(de)趨勢(shi)下(xia)，未來充(chong)電(dian)樁有望保(bao)持較(jiao)高(gao)增(zeng)速。隨著國內(nei)各 省對(dui)《關于進一步提(ti)升電(dian)動汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)基礎(chu)設施服務(wu)保(bao)障能力的(de)實施意見(jian)》等(deng)政策的(de)逐(zhu)步落地， 未來公(gong)共充(chong)電(dian)樁尤(you)其是直(zhi)流充(chong)電(dian)樁占比(bi)或將有所(suo)提(ti)升，車樁比(bi)或將降低。在這些前提(ti)下(xia)，研報認為 2022-2025 年(nian)充(chong)電(dian)樁市場年(nian)復(fu)合(he)增(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)超(chao)過 70%，2025 年(nian)市場規模或將達到 688 億元。

來源：信達證券、未來智庫(ku)