近日(ri)，歐盟談(tan)判代表同意在(zai)未來幾年內在(zai)該地區(qu)推(tui)廣充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)(zhan)和(he)加(jia)氫(qing)站(zhan)(zhan)，以推(tui)動擺脫(tuo)燃油汽車。據(ju)報道，歐洲(zhou)(zhou)議會和(he)成員(yuan)國達成一(yi)項協議，到2026年，在(zai)主要道路上至少每60公里(37英里)安裝(zhuang)一(yi)個(ge)汽車充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)(zhan)，每120公里安裝(zhuang)一(yi)個(ge)卡車充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)(zhan)。隨著協議實施，歐洲(zhou)(zhou)充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)(zhan)料將加(jia)快建(jian)設，歐洲(zhou)(zhou)電動車滲透率和(he)銷(xiao)量是否(fou)會迎(ying)來一(yi)波大(da)幅上漲？

充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)加快建設利好(hao)歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)銷售(shou)。2021年(nian)歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比15.4:1，遠高(gao)于中國同期的(de)(de)6.8:1。根據(ju)德勤發(fa)布的(de)(de)《2022年(nian)全球汽車(che)(che)消費(fei)者研究》，歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)和美國消費(fei)者對(dui)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)顧慮主要為(wei)(wei)續(xu)航里程不(bu)(bu)足、充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數(shu)量不(bu)(bu)足、充(chong)電(dian)(dian)速(su)度不(bu)(bu)夠快等，可見歐(ou)美地區對(dui)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)(de)需(xu)求為(wei)(wei)更多的(de)(de)數(shu)量和更快的(de)(de)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)速(su)度。但是因(yin)為(wei)(wei)歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)本身新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)保(bao)有量和滲透(tou)率基(ji)數(shu)都比較大，所(suo)以我(wo)們(men)認為(wei)(wei)不(bu)(bu)會(hui)有很(hen)大幅的(de)(de)上漲。根據(ju)我(wo)們(men)預測，歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)市場未來將穩健增長(chang)。考慮歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)高(gao)通(tong)脹及供應鏈短缺問題，預計2025年(nian)歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)銷量或達380.76萬輛，對(dui)應的(de)(de)2022-2025年(nian)的(de)(de)CAGR(復合年(nian)均增長(chang)率)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)16%。

此外，歐洲(zhou)各國間公(gong)共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)很不(bu)均勻。主要原因(yin)是歐洲(zhou)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)市場整體起步(bu)(bu)較晚，成本(ben)較高，所以建(jian)設的(de)進(jin)度(du)目前看(kan)來較慢。整體表現如下：第一(yi)，歐洲(zhou)國家(jia)(jia)的(de)新能源汽車(che)市場起步(bu)(bu)較晚，充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)建(jian)設缺乏(fa)統籌規(gui)劃(hua)和(he)政(zheng)策支持(chi)，導(dao)致充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)數量和(he)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)不(bu)均衡。第二，歐洲(zhou)國家(jia)(jia)的(de)地(di)(di)域和(he)人口分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)不(bu)均勻，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)需求較低(di)，還有(you)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)建(jian)設受(shou)到規(gui)劃(hua)和(he)許可等問題的(de)影響(xiang)，導(dao)致充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)安裝進(jin)度(du)緩慢。第三，歐洲(zhou)國家(jia)(jia)的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)標準和(he)認證要求較高，增(zeng)加(jia)了充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)制(zhi)造和(he)進(jin)口的(de)成本(ben)和(he)難度(du)，導(dao)致充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)供應(ying)不(bu)足。

不過隨著歐(ou)(ou)盟政策(ce)轉變，歐(ou)(ou)洲國家(jia)對新(xin)能源汽車(che)和充電(dian)樁的政策(ce)支持力度逐(zhu)漸加大(da)，預計未來幾年(nian)，歐(ou)(ou)洲國家(jia)的公共充電(dian)樁建設將迎(ying)來加速期。

從(cong)中(zhong)歐對比(bi)來看，目前(qian)中(zhong)國的(de)(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)建(jian)設水平較(jiao)領(ling)先。具體原(yuan)因，一是(shi)克服了建(jian)設協(xie)調的(de)(de)難(nan)度，因政策的(de)(de)支持，各(ge)主管部門和相關企業(ye)(ye)協(xie)調較(jiao)好；二(er)是(shi)商業(ye)(ye)模式逐漸成熟(shu)跑通(tong)；三是(shi)車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)發展迅速。按安(an)裝地點分類，目前(qian)中(zhong)國以私(si)人(ren)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(隨(sui)車配(pei)建(jian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang))為主。截(jie)(jie)至(zhi)2022年10月，在(zai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)保有(you)(you)量結構(gou)中(zhong)，私(si)人(ren)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)占比(bi)64%，公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)占比(bi)36%。按充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)技(ji)術(shu)分類，目前(qian)中(zhong)國公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)以交流(liu)(liu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)為主，直流(liu)(liu)占比(bi)有(you)(you)望提(ti)升。截(jie)(jie)至(zhi)2022年10月，在(zai)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)保有(you)(you)量中(zhong)，交流(liu)(liu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)占比(bi)58%，直流(liu)(liu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)占比(bi)42%，相比(bi)2018年底提(ti)升5個百分點，隨(sui)著(zhu)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)日益提(ti)升的(de)(de)快充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)需求(qiu)，公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)中(zhong)直流(liu)(liu)占比(bi)有(you)(you)望提(ti)升。

歐(ou)(ou)洲市場公共(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)則以交流(liu)樁(zhuang)為(wei)主。根(gen)據IEA(國(guo)際能(neng)源署)數據，截至(zhi)2021年，交流(liu)樁(zhuang)保有(you)(you)量為(wei)30.7萬(wan)根(gen)，占比高達86.2%。但是歐(ou)(ou)洲充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)國(guo)家間分(fen)布非(fei)常不均勻(yun)，接近50%的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)集中(zhong)在(zai)荷蘭(約9萬(wan)根(gen))和(he)德國(guo)(約6萬(wan)根(gen))，歐(ou)(ou)盟充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)保有(you)(you)量最低的(de)國(guo)家塞浦路(lu)斯共(gong)和(he)國(guo)僅(jin)有(you)(you)57個(ge)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)，體現出(chu)歐(ou)(ou)洲各(ge)國(guo)之間充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)發(fa)展差(cha)異(yi)較為(wei)顯(xian)著，充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)建(jian)設進度出(chu)現分(fen)化(hua)。公共(gong)直流(liu)樁(zhuang)占比10%左右，且充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)功(gong)(gong)率(lv)普遍偏低，100KW以上的(de)高功(gong)(gong)率(lv)直流(liu)樁(zhuang)僅(jin)占6%。

當然，充(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)也并不是越多(duo)越好。充(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)數量要(yao)根據(ju)新能源(yuan)汽車的(de)保有量(市(shi)場需求)來(lai)判斷。中國市(shi)場人口(kou)(kou)密集，新能源(yuan)車輛較多(duo)，規模效應(ying)好，預期未來(lai)公(gong)共車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)為(wei)2-2.5。而(er)歐(ou)美人口(kou)(kou)稀疏，預期公(gong)共車樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)為(wei)6-10。充(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)建設也要(yao)考慮(lv)多(duo)方面的(de)因素(su)，如技(ji)術限制、技(ji)術水(shui)平(ping)、政策(ce)支(zhi)持、運營效率等。另外(wai)，不能只(zhi)看充(chong)電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)絕(jue)對數量，直(zhi)流樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和(he)交(jiao)流樁(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)比(bi)例也需均衡。

充(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)密集度形(xing)成的(de)規模效應能有效推動新(xin)能源汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)行(xing)業發展(zhan)。目前消費(fei)者選購新(xin)能源車(che)(che)大(da)部(bu)分(fen)仍存在里程焦(jiao)慮的(de)問題，因此當充(chong)電(dian)還不是(shi)特別方便的(de)時候(hou)，肯定會影(ying)響電(dian)動汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)的(de)普及。充(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)建(jian)設運營(ying)可以(yi)提高(gao)新(xin)能源汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)的(de)安(an)全性和便利(li)性，緩(huan)解用(yong)戶里程焦(jiao)慮，增加(jia)用(yong)戶對(dui)新(xin)能源汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)的(de)信心和滿意(yi)度，進而推動新(xin)能源汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)普及。(中新(xin)經緯APP)